Not gonna say I told you so, but…
Last week, Grid State pointed at three drivers.
- Carlos Sainz.
- Franco Colapinto.
- Liam Lawson.
The argument wasn’t based on reputation.
It wasn’t based on championship position.
It wasn’t based on Formula 1 headlines.
It was based on Momentum returns.
One race later, the numbers have become even harder to ignore.
The numbers are being rude again
Carlos Sainz Jr has reached 23 Momentum points and we are rapidly running out of polite ways to call it a coincidence.
Across five scored events, Sainz has scored Race Pick points every single time. Not once. Not twice. Five from five. That matters because Race Pick is the dangerous bit of Momentum. You are picking before qualifying has handed you the obvious answer, so you are not reacting to grid position. You are betting on profile, trend and the likelihood that a driver can turn a messy starting point into actual movement.
Sainz has quietly become the cleanest Race Pick profile in the game. He is not just top of the overall Momentum table. He is doing the thing Momentum rewards most consistently: moving forward when players need him to.
That should make him obvious.
Which, annoyingly, is exactly why we should be careful.
Biggest Story: Race Pick points are doing the heavy lifting
The strongest trend before the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix is not simply that Sainz leads Momentum. It is that the top end of the table is being built by Race Pick monsters.
Sainz has 21 Race Pick points. Liam Lawson has 20. Then there is a gap back to Arvid Lindblad, Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman on 12.
That is not a small difference. That is the data standing on the table and waving both arms.
Sainz and Lawson are not just good Momentum picks. They are currently operating in a different Race Pick economy. Sainz has scored Race Pick points in 100% of events. Lawson has scored in 80%. Between them, they are making a very good argument that the safest route through Barcelona might not be chasing reputation, but chasing repeatable recovery.
Momentum appears completely uninterested in championship reputation.
That’s awkward for a few people.
Quali Watch: Franco Colapinto has become impossible to ignore
For Quali Pick, Franco Colapinto is the name that jumps out.
He leads the season’s Quali scoring with 10 points. Not Verstappen. Not Piastri. Not one of the obvious headline magnets.
Colapinto.
This is exactly the sort of profile Momentum players often underprice because it does not feel glamorous enough. But Quali Pick is not about glamour. It is about finding the driver most likely to improve from the previous race result, and Colapinto has been the best at doing that across the season so far.
His last three average is 4.67, comfortably above his season average of 3.6, so this is not stale data either. The trend is still alive. He also had 20% overall pick share at Monaco, which suggests players have noticed him, but not enough to turn him into a crowded pick yet.
That is the sweet spot.
The other Quali complication is the DNF block. Charles Leclerc, Lance Stroll, Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, Oliver Bearman and Valtteri Bottas are all unavailable as Quali Picks this week. That removes some familiar names and forces the market into more interesting territory.
Good. That is where Momentum usually gets fun.
Race Watch: Liam Lawson is the uncomfortable answer
Sainz is the strongest Race Pick by pure data. That is obvious.
But the more interesting Barcelona Race Pick might be Liam Lawson.
Lawson has 20 Momentum points, all powered by a brutal Race Pick profile. He has scored Race Pick points in 80% of events and has done it in two consecutive events. His total Race Pick score is only one point behind Sainz, yet he had just 10% overall pick share at Monaco.
That is the bit worth staring at.
Sainz had 40% Race Pick share at Monaco. Lawson had 20%. The market is already leaning into Sainz, while Lawson is still sitting there with almost the same Race Pick output and much less crowd noise around him.
This feels like the sort of profile players abandon one week too early.
Trap Picks: Lando Norris remains a very expensive feeling
Lando Norris is the clearest trap in the export.
He has a 0.6 average Momentum score and is labelled both Trap Pick and Cold Pick. He is also blocked from Quali Pick for Barcelona after a Monaco DNF, so the only route in is Race Pick.
That sounds tempting in theory. Big name, potential recovery, likely player interest if he starts out of place.
But the data has not been kind. Norris keeps collecting attention while Momentum players collect almost nothing. At some point, “surely this is the week” becomes less of a strategy and more of a coping mechanism.
Fernando Alonso is in a similar danger zone at 0.6. Lance Stroll is even colder at 0.2 and also Quali-blocked. Nico Hulkenberg sits at 0.8. These are not little warning lights. They are the dashboard doing the full Christmas tree.
What The Grid Is Missing
The overlooked insight is Arvid Lindblad.
Everyone can see Sainz. More players are starting to see Colapinto. Lawson is becoming harder to ignore. But Lindblad is sitting in the middle of all three conversations.
He has 19 total Momentum points, 7 Quali points, 12 Race points and a last three average of 4.67 against a season average of 3.8. That makes him one of the few drivers in the export with genuine two-way usefulness.
He is not just a Quali punt. He is not just a Race recovery profile. He is a flexible Momentum asset.
That matters because Barcelona has a messy pick landscape. Several familiar Quali names are blocked, Sainz is becoming popular, Lawson is attractive but Race-focused, and Colapinto is the obvious Quali data play. Lindblad offers something different: a driver who can make sense in either slot depending on how the rest of your strategy shapes up.
The market still has not fully caught up.
Grid State Verdict
For Barcelona-Catalunya, the clever play is not to blindly follow Sainz, even though the data absolutely respects him.
The recommendation is Arvid Lindblad.
Sainz is the best Race Pick profile in the game right now, but he is becoming obvious. Colapinto is the sharper Quali headline, but his value is more specialised. Lawson is the mischievous Race Pick alternative and deserves serious attention.
But Lindblad is the best all-round opportunity.
He has 19 Momentum points, a rising recent average, 7 Quali points, 12 Race points and the kind of balanced profile that gives players options instead of locking them into one narrow route. In a week where the Quali pool has been disrupted by DNF exclusions, that flexibility matters.
Sainz is the form book.
Lawson is the chaos pick.
Colapinto is the Quali weapon.
But Lindblad is the one the grid may regret leaving alone.
